Guest Column

The networks' morning news programs will increasingly resemble variety shows, featuring interviews, performances and clips by major stars and comeback-staging celebrities. (A recent morning featured Whitney Houston singing several songs on "Good Morning America" while Mariah Carey sang on "The Today Show.") 

If war occurs, the networks will cover the initial days with wall-to-wall coverage. But they will then look at counter-programming to offset the war news with lighter fare. As a recent example, New York City is facing its most serious budget crisis since 1974, with across-the-board deep spending cuts, a massive increase in property taxes, significant private sector layoffs, especially on Wall St., (which will have a significant trickle-down impact on the economy). Yet, the recent covers of New York Magazine, which once would have covered this bad news in depth, have been: "The New Rules of Power Dressing" and "Food Fight: Meat vs. Carbs." 

Time elapsed between major news event and network made-for-TV movie about the event shrinks to 3-4 weeks. "Special reports" on sensational news items, sponsored by corporate advertisers, proliferate on the networks. Promotion of upcoming special reports becomes a staple feature of evening news broadcasts. 

Ability to poll viewers and readers in near real time accelerates the move toward personalized news delivery and creates advertising opportunities for companies targeting specific audiences

IT trade publications move wholesale to the Web, increasingly syndicating research, product demos, and technology Webinars. Only a handful of publications remain in print by July 1. 

The trend toward consolidation in broadcast media will continue, as evidenced by the merger talks between ABC and CNN. (The merger has the support of FCC Chairman Michael Powell and his chief supporter, Sen. John McCain.) Look for consumer advocates to complain about consolidation, pointing out that we will soon get our newspapers, TV and radio news, entertainment and cable/DSL from a handful of corporate entities (AOL Time Warner, News Corp (Fox), Disney (ABC), GM (NBC), CBS, AT&T, Tribune Co., Clear Channel, etc.) 

Following the sale of Bravo Networks in 2002, other cable networks will be put on the block, as some companies seek to reduce debts and others (Viacom, Liberty Media) look to boost market share through acquisitions. Previously some of these networks would have been merged (i.e. Fox Family Channel was combined with Disney to form the ABCFamily Channel), but digital cable allows more channels to survive. 

Print-Cable/TV alliances continue: Forbes reporters appear on Fox; Wall Street Journal reporters appear on CNBC; New York Times continues to co-produce stories with ABC. Increasingly, top reporters at top print news organizations are required to be ready for their close-ups. 

Meanwhile, online publications are still struggling to find a way to be profitable. As advertising revenues stay flat or decline, electronic magazines and newspapers increasingly will move their content into a "pay per view" category, offering basic information for free but charging for "premium" content. Plus, even access to the free information will increasingly require the reader to "subscribe" to the publication, and while the subscription doesn't always require payment, it does require the user to accept cookies, which results in more of those pop-up ads that temporarily, but annoyingly, obscure the content on the screen. 

Conservative vs. liberal media: Conservative pundits, both on cable and radio, will continue to win the ratings game against their liberal opponents by playing the political "outsider," even while Republicans are in charge of the White House, Senate and House. Liberals may need to find a sane and stable Howard Beale-type to get "mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it," and find the issues that resonate with the public.