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Guest Column
Media
Predictions for 2003:
The
State of the Media
by Susan
Eldred, John Parker & Norman Birnbach, Birnbach
Communications
To
succeed with the national business media, companies must have a strong sense of
the media environment, from trends generating coverage to the state of the media
itself. The reason: cultivating the media is similar to making sales calls φ
you need to understand how you and your story fit into the reporter's needs.
Based
on conversations with reporters to find out what theyβre following and an
analystβs approach to monitoring the media, we advise our clients on the type
of stories that have the best chance of capturing the media's attention and to
avoid those that reporters consider to be a waste of time.
This
year already the media is the story. With shake-ups at AOL Time Warner and
significant changes brewing at the FCC, our predictions should help
communicators better understand the state of the media world.
The
lines between news, entertainment and advertising get even fuzzier.
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The
networks' morning news programs will increasingly resemble variety shows,
featuring interviews, performances and clips by major stars and
comeback-staging celebrities. (A recent morning featured Whitney Houston
singing several songs on "Good Morning America" while Mariah Carey
sang on "The Today Show.")
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If
war occurs, the networks will cover the initial days with wall-to-wall
coverage. But they will then look at counter-programming to offset the war
news with lighter fare. As a recent example, New York City is facing its
most serious budget crisis since 1974, with across-the-board deep spending
cuts, a massive increase in property taxes, significant private sector
layoffs, especially on Wall St., (which will have a significant trickle-down
impact on the economy). Yet, the recent covers of New York Magazine, which
once would have covered this bad news in depth, have been: "The New
Rules of Power Dressing" and "Food Fight: Meat vs. Carbs."
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Time
elapsed between major news event and network made-for-TV movie about the
event shrinks to 3-4 weeks. "Special reports" on sensational news
items, sponsored by corporate advertisers, proliferate on the networks.
Promotion of upcoming special reports becomes a staple feature of evening
news broadcasts.
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Ability
to poll viewers and readers in near real time accelerates the move toward
personalized news delivery and creates advertising opportunities for
companies targeting specific audiences
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IT
trade publications move wholesale to the Web, increasingly syndicating
research, product demos, and technology Webinars. Only a handful of
publications remain in print by July 1.
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The
lines between corporate entities will get even fuzzier, too:
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The
trend toward consolidation in broadcast media will continue, as evidenced by
the merger talks between ABC and CNN. (The merger has the support of FCC
Chairman Michael Powell and his chief supporter, Sen. John McCain.) Look for
consumer advocates to complain about consolidation, pointing out that we
will soon get our newspapers, TV and radio news, entertainment and cable/DSL
from a handful of corporate entities (AOL Time Warner, News Corp (Fox),
Disney (ABC), GM (NBC), CBS, AT&T, Tribune Co., Clear Channel, etc.)
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Following
the sale of Bravo Networks in 2002, other cable networks will be put on the
block, as some companies seek to reduce debts and others (Viacom, Liberty
Media) look to boost market share through acquisitions. Previously some of
these networks would have been merged (i.e. Fox Family Channel was combined
with Disney to form the ABCFamily Channel), but digital cable allows more
channels to survive.
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Print-Cable/TV
alliances continue: Forbes
reporters appear on Fox; Wall Street
Journal reporters appear on CNBC; New
York Times continues to co-produce stories with ABC. Increasingly, top
reporters at top print news organizations are required to be ready for their
close-ups.
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Meanwhile,
online publications are still struggling to find a way to be profitable. As
advertising revenues stay flat or decline, electronic magazines and
newspapers increasingly will move their content into a "pay per
view" category, offering basic information for free but charging for
"premium" content. Plus, even access to the free information will
increasingly require the reader to "subscribe" to the publication,
and while the subscription doesn't always require payment, it does require
the user to accept cookies, which results in more of those pop-up ads that
temporarily, but annoyingly, obscure the content on the screen.
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Conservative
vs. liberal media: Conservative
pundits, both on cable and radio, will continue to win the ratings game
against their liberal opponents by playing the political
"outsider," even while Republicans are in charge of the White
House, Senate and House. Liberals may need to find a sane and stable Howard
Beale-type to get "mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it," and
find the issues that resonate with the public.
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The
end of reality as we know it: Reality programs will tank in the March sweeps
period. A few will survive, including "Survivor" and another
"American Idol," but borrowing from Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings,
Spiderman, etc., Hollywood and network TV will replace reality programming with
fantasy. In times of uncertainty, people will want distractions; they will want
larger than life stories and happier endings.
Today's
boy bands and their single-girl equivalents will stop selling as many records as
they attempt new "serious" music in a quixotic attempt at credibility.
(It's hard to sing to a teen audience when you're approaching AARP membership).
The current batch will stop appearing in so many commercials, but will keep on
appearing on countless music-industry award programs and try to launch film
careers. The worst news: they will be replaced by other groups selling to the
same lucrative pre-teen audience.
------------------

Norman
Birnbach
Birnbach
Communications, Inc.
20
Devereux Street ~ Marblehead, Massachusetts 01945
P:
781.639.6701
~ F:
781.639.6702
Email:
birnbach@birnbachcom.com
Website:
www.birnbachcom.com
As
we got ready for 2003, Birnbach Communications put together its annual list of
predictions. This year, the topics range from the economy, war and
security, health care, telecom, technology, and media and entertainment. I
thought you might be interested in our predictions about the changing nature of
the media. The entire piece, co-written by Susan Eldred and John Parker,
is available at http://www.birnbachcom.com/news/2003_predictions.shtml.
The specific article about the media is attached, below.
Birnbach
Communications, Inc. is a strategic business communications consultancy that
offers excellent service with experienced, senior-level attention across a range
of industries, including technology, health care and life sciences,
telecommunications, and travel and transportation. We provide a portfolio
of strategic business communication services, specializing in national media
relations, corporate communications, and market intelligence to a client base of
emerging and mid-size companies as well as divisions of large corporations.
We stay on top of the news to advise our clients of fast-breaking changes that
could affect them.
Submit your "Guest Column" today directly to our
staff at Tjfr@NewsBios.com.
January 27, 2003 | |
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