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Course In Advanced Public Relations Theory

Week One:  Thought Experiments

By Dean Rotbart

Welcome back to school.  I hope you all had an enriching summer and that you are ready to resume your studies of the public relations and news markets.

As youâll recall from last semester, we discussed the Efficient Markets Theory of Media Relations, also known as EMTMR.    EMTMR seeks to explain the workings of the news business and postulates that the mediaâs coverage of any particular company, person or product reflects a rational assessment of the true underlying newsworthiness of that news subject.

In other words, most companies and people get just about as much news coverage as they deserve.

EMTMR draws its inspiration from a 30-plus year old stock market hypothesis that states that the price of a stock reflects all known information and is accurate.  Those who buy THAT theory, believe it is useless to try to outperform the broad stock market, unless you get unusually lucky or trade based upon illegal inside information.  

Translated into PR terminology, you canât make a big media splash unless A.  You genuinely deserve it.  B.  You win this weekâs PR lottery.  C.  Your uncle owns the media outlet.

If EMTMR proves valid, it fundamentally invalidates the claims of all PR firms that they can do a better job than their competition when it comes to getting you media coverage. 

Why?

Because according to EMTMR, over a reasonable period of time you are entitled to only so much media coverage and nothing more or less.  Basically, you can do zilch and if you are newsworthy, the media will find you.  Or, conversely, you can do everything, and if your story pitch doesnât qualify as newsworthy, all the extra effort wonât do you a twit of good.

Voila, the news markets are efficient.

I believe many business and financial journalists do endorse EMTMR.  In their eyes, PR firms and PR agents are like stock market hucksters who tell you they have an inside-edge on getting you news coverage, when their only true inside edge is relieving you of your cash.   

Though EMTMR is a hard, if not impossible theory to test, we can conduct a thought experiment.  Imagine, for the sake of science, that for one year all public relations campaigns are banned by law.  Outright outlawed.  No one in the United States or anywhere else for that matter can practice PR.  Any scoundrel who tries will be fast tracked into the pokey.

How does news coverage change?

Does the media profile of some companies evaporate while the visibility of other companies materialize on center stage? 

Or, as according to EMTMR, does very little change?  Does the news world as we know it continue without any reader or viewer noticing a difference?

In our next class, weâll revisit EMTMR and Iâll introduce you to my own, newly minted theory of media relations, known as MTYFS theorem.

For homework this week

Iâd like you to email me (rotbart@tjfr.com) with your own thoughts on the credibility of EMTMR.  I will be issuing extra credit for the best replies.

Class dismissed.

VIEW HOMEWORK SUBMISSIONS FOR WK1

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August 20, 2003

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